Making assumptions: how to turn your guesswork into insights

Making assumptions is an essential function of the human mind, yet problems arise when we treat these fleeting assessments of people and situations as facts. While it can be fine to make simple choices based on your assumptions, you put yourself and others at risk if they become the basis for significant decisions. Let’s look at what assumptions are, and how to manage them for better decision-making success.

What are Assumptions?

The human mind is constantly making assumptions. At any point, it can be processing hundreds of pieces of information from our senses. To analyse and prioritise this vast amount of incoming data, the mind makes swift judgements about value and risk.

For example, it’s a clear blue sky so I assume I won’t need an umbrella. The friend I’m meeting for lunch is smiling as I greet them so I assume they are happy. We choose a relatively well-known restaurant so we assume the meal will be good.

So far, none of these assumptions are based on research. As we all know, the weather can change quickly, people can hide their true feelings, and restaurants are only as good as their recent reviews.

Limited Information

While eating lunch, we suddenly hear a loud crash from the kitchen, so we assume someone has accidentally dropped some plates. Over in the corner, a man and woman start speaking with raised voices and so we assume they are arguing about their relationship.

Assumptions are made in milliseconds and are based solely on the information you have available at the time. The key thing to bear in mind is most of that information comes from your mind.

For example, you cannot see into the kitchen or hear the couple’s conversation clearly, so your assumptions are based on what you believe to be normal for these kinds of events. In reality, the kitchen crash could be the result of an argument, and the raised voices are simply a passionate debate about a film or book.

Assumptions are based on what you generally know about people and situations, and not what you specifically know about these particular people and situations. Assumptions are made in the absence of facts. We don’t know, so we assume.

The Assumptions Trap

Making assumptions becomes problematic if they end up as unfounded beliefs. That puts you at risk of flawed decision-making. If your assumptions are wrong, then your decisions may do more harm than good.

Unfortunately, we all fall into the trap of using assumptions as beliefs, and time is often the key factor. Our lives are so busy that we don’t have the capacity to research every thought that comes to mind. Furthermore, if we assume something or someone might be harmful, then we can be disinclined to test that assumption by going near them.

Contributing to the assumptions trap are the many cognitive biases of the human mind. For example, we tend to prefer information that reinforces existing beliefs rather than information that challenges them. We also tend to make judgements based on recent experiences, rather than a balanced consideration of experiences over a longer period of time.

How to Manage Your Assumptions

You cannot stop yourself from making assumptions, but you can control your relationship to them.

Remember that your first impressions of a person or situation are simply quick subjective assessments, and must be treated as such. If you are making a low-risk decision such as which snack you prefer then, food allergies aside, this is unlikely to cause you much damage. However, any significant decision requires you to challenge assumptions to determine if they are accurate or misleading.

For example, one of the most common business mistakes is making assumptions about what the customer wants. Recruitment can also suffer from making assumptions about people, as can assigning team roles. If assumptions guide who a line manager selects or dismisses, then they are unlikely to pick a dream team. In the worst case, they might even be contributing to workplace discrimination.

You also need to manage your relationship with other people’s assumptions. It’s up to you to identify whether their information is opinion or researched fact before you act on it. A key line management task is inspiring team members to thoroughly research the information they bring to the table.

From Subjective Assumption to Objective Fact

Naturally, if you have a significant decision to make then you should be thinking about it carefully. The more significant the decision is, the more consideration it requires. That means engaging the conscious mind.

In his book “Thinking, Fast and Slow,” Nobel-winning author Daniel Kahneman discusses two speeds at which the mind operates. There is fast thinking that occurs automatically and mostly unconsciously, and there is the slow thinking of the conscious. This is where we manually consider information until we arrive at a suitable conclusion.

There are many articles on how to challenge the assumptions generated by fast thinking, but most are based on good research techniques in one form or another. That means gathering relevant facts from reliable sources in order to make the best assessment possible.

When gathering the input and expertise of others, ask open questions and actively listen to the answers. As you listen to people, don’t let your rapidly forming assumptions interrupt them. Instead, try to distance your mind from your beliefs, which puts you in a much more receptive frame of mind.

Good research also means taking a moment to list what unproven assumptions might influence the decision you need to make. Once researched, you will be in the best possible position to make the ideal choice.

Be a Responsible Provider of Information

Unfortunately, it can be all too easy to share unfounded assumptions without considering the wider problems that these opinions bring about.

Incorrect assumptions fuel the incorrect assumptions of others, which influences how they treat people and situations. In its worst forms, assumptions spread prejudice that causes extensive damage to people’s lives.

This is why responsible providers of information tend to keep their assumptions to themselves. If they do provide an unresearched opinion, then they often make this very clear beforehand. In business and any other situation, the correct answer is always, “Let me come back to you on that.”

Decision-making Skills

Impact Factory runs

Open Personal Impact Courses

Tailored Personal Impact Training

Five-Day Intensive Communicate With Impact Workshops

and personalised

One-to-One Soft Skills Training

for anyone interested in

Assumptions and Decision Making